Operations Research Analyst

Operations Research Analyst Strategic Analysis and Analytic Innovation Division SAID JOA GS 2026 1515 120 SAID Department Department of War DOW Agency Office of the Secretary of War OSW Hiring Organization Cost Assessment and Program Evaluation CAPE Open Period 9302026 10272026 Pay Scale & Grade GS 12131415 Salary Range 102415 197200 Series & Appointment Type 1515 Operations Research Permanent Schedule B Excepted Service Location Pentagon Arlington VA Work Schedule Full Time Clearance Requirements Must be able to obtain and maintain a Top SecretSCI Citizenship Requirement Open to all US Citizens Relocation expenses reimbursed No Summary CAPE is hiring We provide objective analysis based advice directly to the Secretary and Deputy Secretary of War on everything the Department of War does and our work has a direct effect on the US budget and national security Within CAPE an interdisciplinary and non advocate organization the Analysis and Innovation A&I Deputate is responsible for a standing strategic assessment of the Defense Program as a whole focused on its long term feasibility and its coherence with the defense strategy A&I also maintains the analytic methods standards data infrastructure and modeling and simulation tools on which CAPEs analysis rests It performs CAPEs role as Executive Secretary of the Departments Analysis Working Group AWG the body chartered to raise analytic standards across the Department This announcement is for positions in the Strategic Analysis and Analytic Innovation Division SAID SAID maintains CAPEs analytic methods and the standards to which CAPE analyses are held including sound study design appropriate evidence documented provenance and explicit treatment of uncertainty It builds the analytic tools that embody those methods which CAPEs data infrastructure division the Defense Analyst Support Hub DASH integrates and operates on the War Data Platform It performs the assurance review that confirms analyses especially AI assisted ones are defensible before they are used Its methods span design of experiments exploratory modeling and scenario discovery optimization and decision analysis statistical inference and forecasting structured elicitation wargaming and campaign analysis standards and the verification of AI assisted analysis SAID is also the principal contributor to the methods and standards content of CAPEs role as Executive Secretary of the Departments Analysis Working Group Through that role the methods and standards SAID develops reach the Department as a whole SAID also builds the emulation layer of CAPEs mission analysis environment the surrogate models that stand in for expensive simulations fitted and validated to SAIDs standard and the pre built analytics on them which DASH operates This announcement covers three entry points in SAID Senior Methodologist GS 1415 A generalist on the divisions common methods skill set including design of experiments and statistics Each senior methodologist also owns one named specialization wargaming and campaign analysis; exploratory modeling and scenario discovery; emulation and surrogate modeling; optimization and operations research; or inference forecasting and structured elicitation AI Specialist GS 1415 The one senior seat without a methods specialization dedicated to finding effective uses of AI in analysis and above all verifying what it produces Any product the specialist builds for senior leaders is reviewed by another qualified reviewer never by its developer alone Methodologist GS 1213 Develops on the common skill set under a senior mentor Duties and Responsibilities Depending on the grade level and specific billet selectees will be responsible for Setting the Methods and Rigor Standard Developing defining and validating the study design statistical and assurance rules that determine what makes an analysis defensible sound design evidence provenance and stated uncertainty Building Analytic Tools Creating testing and documenting the tools and models that embody approved methods for DASH to integrate and operate on the War Data Platform and for analysts across CAPE to run Model and Algorithm Catalogue Developing and maintaining a catalogue of modern mathematical models and algorithms that improve campaign and warfighting analysis with the conditions under which each is valid Assurance Review Conducting independent reviews to determine and document whether CAPE analyses meet applicable methods and assurance standards before senior leaders use them including any residual limitations or unresolved uncertainties For AI assisted work applying verification protocols under which no tool or product that goes to senior leaders is validated by its own developer Conducting Code Based Analytics Conducting analysis and tool development in programming or statistical software suites such as R Python MATLAB or GAMS Mentorship GS 1415 Mentoring junior methodologists in method documentation and assurance practice Specialized duties each senior methodologist owns one Wargaming and Campaign Analysis Setting the standards for the wargames and campaign analyses CAPE uses and judging whether external products meet them Building and running simple fast models of how US and adversary forces interact which CPAD and other divisions use to frame and interpret resource alternatives Designing methods that let an analysis account for an adversary who adapts to the option under studyExploratory Modeling and Scenario Discovery Designing ensemble experiments sampling strategies experiment frameworks and discovery analytics to systematically and defensibly map decision trade spaces Leads the build of the emulation layer of CAPEs mission analysis environment the design of experiments the validation standard against held out runs out of domain detection and adaptive batch selectionEmulation and Surrogate Modeling Fitting documenting and validating the surrogate models emulators that stand in for expensive simulations to the experiment design the exploratory modeling seat sets each with a version of record and a stated validation domain and building the pre built analytics on them sensitivity marginal gain tipping point and feasibility maps and trade spacesOptimization and Operations Research Creating formal decision framing value models utility functions and optimization tools for use by CAPE analytic teams evaluating complex defense portfoliosInference Forecasting and Structured Elicitation Designing empirical research designs forecasting methods and structured elicitation methods to rigorously validate claims drawn from observed or sparse dataAI Methods and Verification Identifying effective uses of AI and emerging technologies in CAPEs methods and tools and developing testing and institutionalizing the verification and validation methods that confirm what AI produces The work follows A&Is operating rule AI and automation may support high volume analytical tasks Analysts remain responsible for validating inputs making substantive judgments and approving final productsQualifications Basic Requirements A degree in operations research from an accredited collegeuniversity; or at least 24 semester hours in a combination of operations research mathematics probability statistics mathematical logic science or subject matter courses requiring substantial competence in college level mathematics or statistics At least 3 of the 24 semester hours must have been in calculus RequiredPC1 Skills Your qualifications will be evaluated on your knowledge skills abilities and competencies in the following areas Quantitative Analytics Mathematical and statistical reasoning appropriate to the grade sought including experience applying and documenting quantitative methods and implementing analysis or tools in code Applicants should demonstrate depth in at least one of the specialized domains below; breadth across all domains is not required Methodological Tradecraft Specialized Domain Depth Demonstrated experience in at least one of the following domains Wargaming and Campaign Analysis Standard Setting Design of threat representative adaptive adversary simulations and coarse resourcing interaction modelsExploratory Modeling Design of experiments DoE over high dimensional computational models scenario discovery and parameter uncertainty managementEmulation and Surrogate Modeling Fitting and validating surrogate models of computational simulations Gaussian process tree ensemble or neural surrogates validation against held out runs out of domain detection and adaptive samplingMathematical Optimization Formulation of multi objective linearnonlinear programming formal decision framing and multi attribute utility modelsStatistical Inference Rigorous data driven forecasting Bayesian inference and formal structured elicitation techniquesAI Verification and Validation Deep understanding of AIML architectures verification of generative outputs bias detection and adversarial testingCollaboration Ability to work with and collaborate with individuals across a broad spectrum of internal and external organizations including academia think tanks defense laboratories and international partners to import and validate new methods Communication Ability to translate complex mathematical concepts scientific methodologies and analytic limitations into concise plain language through varied types of written communication to include emails memos PowerPoint briefs white papers and full reports Oral communications may include formal presentations or briefings in front of large groups of senior officials Specialized Experience To qualify at a grade you must have at least one year of specialized experience 12 months at 40 hours per week equivalent to at least the next lower grade level performing the duties and demonstrating the competencies listed for that grade GS 12 Qualifications Methodologist Under the guidance of senior analysts applying analytic mathematical or statistical methods to plan coordinate and execute segments of studies; and communicating effectively with colleagues; OR a PhD or equivalent doctoral degreeGS 13 Qualifications Methodologist Experience applying statistical and operations research methods to segments of studies under general direction; implementing and testing analytic models in code; documenting methods assumptions and uncertainty; and communicating results to internal and external colleaguesGS 14 Qualifications Senior Methodologist or AI Specialist Experience equivalent to GS 13 independently developing testing or validating analytic methods or tools; documenting assumptions provenance limitations and uncertainty; and demonstrating advanced expertise in at least one announced specialization AI Specialist applicants must demonstrate experience evaluating AI or machine learning outputs for validity bias robustness or adversarial failureGS 15 Qualifications Senior Methodologist or AI Specialist Experience equivalent to GS 14 leading methodological development or independent analytic assurance; establishing standards used by multiple study teams or organizations; providing authoritative consultation on at least one announced specialization; and communicating methodological findings and limitations to senior decision makersVolunteer Work Experiences You can also receive credit for all qualifying experience including volunteer experience Volunteer work refers to paid and unpaid experience including volunteer work done through National Service Programs and other organizations eg professional; philanthropic; religious; spiritual; community; student and social How to Apply Required Documents 1 Resume a IN DESCRIBING YOUR EXPERIENCE BE CLEAR SPECIFIC AND DETAILED WE MAY NOT MAKE ASSUMPTIONS REGARDING YOUR EXPERIENCE b Include your name address and contact information and for each position the hours worked per week and the dates of employment or volunteer service monthyear to monthyear or monthyear to present One year of specialized experience equals 2087 hours or 52 weeks at 40 hours per week; part time hours are prorated Experience that does not state exact hours per week or lists them as varies will not be credited For additional information see How do I write a resume for a federal job c Do not include any photos and Personally Identifiable Information ie Social Security Number Birthdate on your resume d Resume must be limited to 2 pages and a minimum size 10 font Please save your resume as a PDF file to preserve the 2 page length 2 Transcripts To count toward the qualification requirements education must come from an institution accredited by an accrediting body recognized by the US Department of Education A copy of a diploma alone is not sufficient a Foreign Education Education completed at a foreign college or university may be used to meet the requirements if you provide proof that the credentials have been evaluated as at least equivalent to those earned in an accredited US program 3 Writing Sample Demonstrate your analytic ability and writing skills in one page addressing the following Choose one prompt 1 Identify an analytic method or standard that defense resourcing analysis applies poorly explain the resulting decision risk and propose a testable improvement; or 2 describe how you would verify an AI generated analytic finding before it reaches a senior decision maker including provenance error testing uncertainty adversarial testing and human approval 4 Veterans Preference veteran eligibility documentation DD 214 Member 4 Copy VA Letter Standard Form SF 15 as applicable Please note If you are a veteran who has not yet been discharged you may provide a statement of intent to discharge from your agency to receive Veterans Preference under the VOW Veterans Opportunity to Work to Hire Heroes Act of 2011 5 SF 50 Your latest SF 50 if applicable showing your tenure grade and step and type of position occupied Remove all Personally Identifiable Information Social Security Number and Birthdate a If you receive an updated SF 50 after initially applying please provide the updated document to CAPE to be added to your application b If youve had a break in service please provide your original appointment SF50 in addition to your resignation SF50 cIf you do not have your latest documents you can submit a request to the National Personnel Records Center to obtain them see guidance here httpswwwarchivesgovpersonnel records centercivilian non archival 6 Military Spouse Preference Eligibility documentation if applicable For Priority Placement Program you must include a copy of the Military Spouse PPP Self Certification Checklist along with the documents identified on the checklist to verify your eligibility for MSP such as PCS ordersverification of duty location assignment and a copy of marriage certificate or license For eligibility under Executive Order 13473 acceptable documentation includes verification of marriage to the servicemember verification of members 100 percent disability or verification of members death while on active duty 7 Free Response Essay Questions Optional section to demonstrate your commitment to improving the efficiency of the Federal government passion about the ideals of our American republic and commitment to upholding the rule of law and the United States Constitution You will not be scored against your responses for this section Please visit the CAPE Careers website for more information on CAPE our benefits and more How You Will Be Evaluated Subject matter experts will evaluate your qualifications before any referral If you meet the minimum qualifications for this position your application will be assessed in a multi hurdle process that ends in a ranking and referral Resume Review First Hurdle Subject matter experts will review your resume to determine qualifications based on the required competencies identified above Qualifying Structured Interviews Second Hurdle If the subject matter experts determine that your resume reflects the required competencies you will have a panel interview virtual or by phone to assess your experience against those competencies The interview may include in depth questions or an exercise or case study to measure your depth of knowledge Ranking and Preference Qualified candidates receive a score between 70 and 100 before any points for veterans preference Your answers are verified against the information in your application and by reference checks Preference is applied to applicants who move forward after the qualifying interviews Selection Process Hiring managers receive a certificate listing the qualified candidates eligible for selection If you are not selected for this position you may be considered for similar positions for up to six months from the certificate date and the certificate may be shared with other CAPE hiring managers If you are selected for an interview you may be asked to give a presentation analyze a case study or take part in several rounds of interviews Agency contact information Cost Assessment and Program Evaluation CAPE Email osdpentagoncapembxesd supportmailmil Address 1800 Defense Pentagon Room 3E231 Washington DC 20301 1800 Additional Information Priority consideration programs will continue under their current operating procedures Military Spouse Preference MSP Eligible Military Spouse Preference applicants must be selected and placed at the highest grade level for which they have applied and been determined best qualified up to and including the full performance level You must include a completed copy of the Military Spouse PPP Self Certification Checklist dated within 30 days along with the documents identified on the checklist to verify your eligibility for Military Spouse Preference Click here to obtain a copy of the Military Spouse PPP Self Certification Checklist NOTE Military spouses are eligible for one permanent noncompetitive appointment using their preference eligibility for the duration of the active duty sponsors assignment to a permanent duty station as long as the military spouse has not declined or accepted a permanent Federal or non appropriated fund position in the commuting area of the sponsors current duty location If you certify that you have not used your preference at your sponsors current duty location and it is discovered to be untrue you may be subject to loss of MSP and possible disciplinary action Military Spouses under Executive Order EO 13473 You are eligible for this hiring category if you are a spouse of a member of the Armed Forces serving on active duty for more than 180 days other than for training; OR are a spouse of a 100 percent disabled service member injured while on active duty; OR are the un remarried widow or widower of a service member who was killed while performing active duty Supporting documentation You are required to submit acceptable documentation of your eligibility for EO 13473 which may include Verification of the marriage to the service member ie a marriage license or other legal documentation verifying marriage; Verification of the members 100 percent disability; andor Verification of the members death while on active duty Additionally you may need to submit a Standard Form 15 SF 15 an Application for 10 Point Veterans Preference and applicable supporting documents as noted on the form To obtain a copy of SF 15 go to httpswwwopmgovformspdffillsf15pdf Military Reserve MR and National Guard NG Technicians PPP Eligible MR and NG technicians PPP applicants must be selected and placed at the full performance level if determined well qualified You must include a completed copy of the Military Reserve and National Guard Technician PPP Self Certification Checklist to verify your eligibility for Military Reserve and National Guard Technician preference Click here to obtain a copy of the Military Reserve and National Guard Technician PPP Self Certification Checklist6 Military Reserve MR and National Guard NG Technicians Receiving Disability Retirement PPP Eligible MR and NG technicians receiving disability retirement PPP applicants must be selected and placed at the full performance level if determined well qualified You must include a completed copy of the Military Reserve and National Guard Technician Disability PPP Self Certification Checklist to verify your eligibility for Military Reserve and National Guard Technician Disability preference Click here to obtain a copy of the Military Reserve and National Guard Technician Disability PPP Self Certification Checklist7 Retained Grade PPP Eligible Retained Grade PPP applicants must be selected and placed at the full performance level if determined well qualified You must include a completed copy of the Retained Grade PPP Self Certification Checklist to verify your eligibility for Retained Grade preference Click here to obtain a copy of the Retained Grade PPP Self Certification Checklist Schedule B Excepted Service Public Notice Under this recruitment procedure applications will be accepted and selections are made for vacancies as they occur A tentative offer of employment will be rescinded if the selectee fails to meet the pre employment requirements including failure to report to any of the scheduled appointments Employed Annuitants Reemployed Annuitants Applicants in receipt of an annuity based on civilian employment in the Federal Service are subject to the DoD Policy on The Employment of Annuitants Selective Service Males born after 12 31 59 must be registered or exempt from Selective Service For additional information click here Employment Eligibility Verification Washington Headquarters Services uses E Verify to confirm the employment eligibility of all newly hired employees To learn more about E Verify including your rights and responsibilities visit httpwwwdhsgovE Verify Nepotism Under the provisions of 5 USC 3110 an individual may not be appointed into a position if the position is under the supervisory chain of command of a relative Fair and transparent The Federal hiring process is set up to be fair and transparent Please read the following guidance Privacy Act Statement Criminal History Inquiries Equal Employment Opportunity Policy Financial Suitability What is financial disclosure and why does this job require it Privacy Policy New Employee Probationary Period Reasonable Accommodation Policy Selective Service Registration Signature and false statements Social security number request